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US 2020 Presidential Election PredictionsThis is the only site with all 2020 US Election Predictions
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The Contested Election: Sept 13, 2020
I know everyone is focused on the most likely prediction, but there is great value in the "what if" scenarios within realistic bounds of the polling data.
The tied election and contested election are two terrible outcomes of a presidential election. On the home page, I show a possible 269-269 tie with Trump winning two key states, Wisconsin and Florida, as well as the OGIT (pronounced oh git) Ohio, Georgia, Iowa and Texas. Many forecasters consider this group to lean Republican, particularly Texas.
So, is a tied vote possible if Wisconsin goes to Biden with a loss of 10 EV's? Absolutely - here's my proof:
Click the map to create your own at
On this map, I've used the light blue and red to show changes from the tied election map on the home page. Wisconsin (10) and North Carolina, a super toss up right now, with 15 EV's are now won by Democrats. To counterbalance this, I've given Pennsylvania (20) and New Mexico (5) to Republicans.
Could New Mexico be flipped? It is usually a "likely Democrat" state. More plausible is North Carolina (15) going to Trump, resulting in a very narrow win for Trump 279 to 259 EV's. But, add to this scenario, Florida going to Biden with 29 electoral votes would be enough to put Biden over the top, 288 to 250 EV. With these close elections, the mail in ballot becomes critical. You can expect contested elections in North Carolina and possibly in both Florida and Pennsylvania under these scenarios. Contested elections means lawsuits and mail in ballots recounts.
Or keeping New Mexico (5) as Republican, we can consider Nebraska's Second Congressional District (NE2), with one electoral vote goes to Biden, so Biden wins 270 to 268 EV's. Or Maine's ME2 goes to Trump, so Trump wins 270 to 268 EV's.
I have included Ryan Gest YouTube video on why he considers Florida to be the true turning point state. YouTube Election Prediction Official video. I'm not saying this is the most likely scenarios. The 2020 election will be different due to the increased mail-in voting. I applaud efforts by Facebook policy to attach warning labels to premature announcements of election victories. The warning label will have a link to more official results.
For all those who are planning to vote by mail, please request your mail in ballots early and do not delay in voting. Every vote counts.
Stay tuned,
David Lord